More Fourth Round Upsets

The fourth round of March Madness is now over.

There were three more upsets in the fourth round, but how upsetting has the tournament been so far?

There are two stats that I keep during the tournament each year.

UF (Upset Factor) is a number that is a sum off the seed differences when a lower seed knocks of a team with a higher seeding. For instance, when a 15 seed knocks off a 2 seed the UF is incremented by 13. If an 9 seed knocks off a 8 seed then the UF goes up by 1. If a 10 seed beats a 15 seed, there are no UF points since the higher seed was the winner.

BP (Bracket Points) is probably familiar to most sports fans. When scoring your bracket you get 1 point for a first round win, 2 points for the second round and then 4, 8, 16 and 32 for the following rounds. Basically, you fill out the bracket with the higher seeded team winning each game. You then add up the points based on the tourney results. For the Final Four, the points are given when a #1 seed wins.

Disclaimer: The First Four is ignored as all four games are against teams of equal seeding. There are no upsets in the First Four games. The traditional first round is now sometimes referred to as the second round. It is the first round to me.

With the upsets in the fourth round how were the UF and BP affected?

Here are the numbers through the fourth round. You can see that there were upsets in three of the four games but only one was a difference of five.   You can see that because of earlier upsets I had already zeroed out the entries for BP for the rest of the tournament. There were no Bracket Points left.

How do these numbers stack up to the previous 37 tournaments?The UF increased by 10 to 95 in the fourth round and is 14th hightest at this point in the tournament.

There is still a possibility of more upsets, but not many UF points are available. There are two scenarios that will give nine more UF which would make it 6th highest all time. However, this would take the 9 seed winning the tournament. A semi-final win by the 9 seed will put it in the top 10.

I also keep track of how many double digit seeds make it to each round.

This year five double digit seeds made it to the second round but only one survived to make it to the third round. That lone survivor did not make it to the 4th round. There were five years where a double digit seed made it to the Final Four.

This one is sorted by fourth round BP. There were no possibilities for BP after the third round so the final tally is 47. This year the tournament has gone the least according to plan.

Now to see how the rest of the tournament plays out. Will there be a few more upsets?

Who will win it all? Will it be the remaining 4 seed?

Steven

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