2022 NCAA Third Round Numbers

This year there have been some big upsets in the Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament.

But, how upsetting has it been compared to previous tournaments?

Each year, I keep track of two numbers during the tournament. The first is UF or Upset Factor. The second one is BP or Bracket Points.

UF (Upset Factor) is a number that is a sum of the seed differences when a lower seed knocks off a team with a higher seeding. For instance, when a 15 seed knocks off a 2 seed the UF is incremented by 13. If a 9 seed knocks off an 8 seed then the UF goes up by 1. If a 10 seed beats a 15 seed, there are no UF points since the higher seed was the winner.

BP (Bracket Points) is probably familiar to most sports fans. When scoring your bracket you get 1 point for a first round win, 2 points for the second round and then 4, 8, 16 and 32 for the following rounds. Basically, you fill out a bracket with the higher seeded team winning each game. If your bracket matches the reference bracket and they win, then you get points. For the Final Four, the points are given when a #1 seed wins.

Upset Factor, Most upsetting, Final 4, NCAA Basketball Tournament, Bracket pointsHere is what a perfect bracket would look like.

So, now for the big question after the third round: How upsetting is this tournament?

2022 ncaa third round, basketball, tournament, upset factor, bracket points

The UF for the third round was 23 and the BP was 12.

2022 ncaa third round, basketball, tournament, upset factor, bracket pointsThe BP through the third round this year is fairly low.  There have only been six years with a lower BP after the first three rounds.

2022 ncaa third round, basketball, tournament, upset factor, bracket pointsIf we look at the total BP we find that the lowest year was 2011 with only 57 BP. The only team that can earn more BP is Kansas as the one seed is expected to win in the fourth round and in the Final 4. If Kansas loses, this will be the new all time low for BP. However, if Kansas wins out then the BP would more than double to 110. This would be about at the average for a tournament.

2022 ncaa third round, basketball, tournament, upset factor, bracket pointsThe UF is the second highest through the third round as some of the upsets have been big ones. This will also be reflected in the next category. There has only been one year with lower UF numbers after the third round.

2022 ncaa third round, basketball, tournament, upset factor, bracket pointsAnother stat I keep track of is the number of double digit seeds that advance to each round. The third round started with four double digit seeds. In the third round two of the double digit seeds won and advanced to the Elite 8. There have been five years where this has happened.

It will be interesting to see how the rest of the tournament turns out. Will this year remain near the bottom in BP? Will the right upsets take place that will add up to 17 more UF?

The records are 2011 with a BP of only 57 and 2021 with a UF of 128.

Both of these records could possibly be broken if Kansas loses in the next round.


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1 Response to 2022 NCAA Third Round Numbers

  1. Cody Leeper says:

    That is very interesting. Thank you for putting that together.

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