Last Day of Winter 2022

Posted on March 19, 2022 by vanbraman

Today is the last day of winter, and I am looking forward to spring.

Of course, here in California it already is feeling like spring. Especially the allergies from all the pollen.

California winter, rain clouds, gazeboIt was nice this week to have a little bit of rain which has helped reduce the allergens in the air.

I worked from home most of the week, but did go to the office for a St. Patrick’s celebration. Oops, I mean to prep for my course next week.

I do like this time of year as the nearby park is nice and green from the rains.

Winter white earl grey, tea, hot tea, winter teaWhile working from home I have been enjoying some of my many teas. Today I decided that I had to have one last cup of Winter White Earl Grey tea before winter was over.

earl grey, white tea, winter teaThe tea was really good and it kept me going today.

Patterson Hills, Green Hills, winter, central valley californiaI am also missing views like this since I am not commuting as much over the Altamont. This is one of the prettiest times of year for the hills. However, as spring starts the hills will start to turn golden.

Altamont Hills Summer versus WinterWhich makes me think of this picture. Which side of the picture is winter, and which is summer?

Tomorrow is the first day of spring. I hope it gets off to a good start.

Steven

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2022 NCAA First Round Numbers

Posted on March 18, 2022 by vanbraman

This year there has been  some big upsets in the Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament.

But, how upsetting has it been compared to previous tournaments?

Each year, I keep track of two numbers during the tournament. The first is UF or Upset Factor. The second one is BP or Bracket Points.

UF (Upset Factor) is a number that is a sum of the seed differences when a lower seed knocks off a team with a higher seeding. For instance, when a 15 seed knocks off a 2 seed the UF is incremented by 13. If a 9 seed knocks off an 8 seed then the UF goes up by 1. If a 10 seed beats a 15 seed, there are no UF points since the higher seed was the winner.

BP (Bracket Points) is probably familiar to most sports fans. When scoring your bracket you get 1 point for a first round win, 2 points for the second round and then 4, 8, 16 and 32 for the following rounds. Basically, you fill out a bracket with the higher seeded team winning each game. If your bracket matches the reference bracket and they win, then you get points. For the Final Four, the points are given when a #1 seed wins.

Upset Factor, Most upsetting, Final 4, NCAA Basketball Tournament, Bracket pointsHere is what a perfect bracket would look like.

So, now for the big question after the 1st round: How upsetting is this tournament?

2022 ncaa tourney, basketball, stats, bp, ufThe UF for the first round was 48, which is just a little more than the average of 42 after the first round.

Upset Factor, Most upsetting, Final 4, NCAA Basketball Tournament, Bracket pointsThe most upsetting first round was in 2016 when there was a UF of 73.

2022 ncaa tourney, basketball, stats, bp, ufThe BP for the first round this year was one of the lowest. There has only been five years with less first round wins by the expected seed.

 

2022 ncaa tourney, basketball, stats, bp, ufAnother stat I keep track of is the number of double digit seeds that advance to each round. In the first round this year seven of the double digit seeds won. This is close to the top of the list with 2016 having ten double digit seeds advance to the second round. It is interesting that there are no double digit seeds that meet each other in the second round, so there may not be any in the Sweet 16.

It will be interesting to see how the rest of the tournament turns out. Will this remain near the bottom in BP?

The record is 2011 with a BP of only 57.

Yesterday was St. Peter’s day so most brackets got busted.

Many of my friends got their bracket busted with Iowa losing.

Did your bracket get busted?

Steven

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