2022 NCAA First Round Numbers

This year there has been  some big upsets in the Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament.

But, how upsetting has it been compared to previous tournaments?

Each year, I keep track of two numbers during the tournament. The first is UF or Upset Factor. The second one is BP or Bracket Points.

UF (Upset Factor) is a number that is a sum of the seed differences when a lower seed knocks off a team with a higher seeding. For instance, when a 15 seed knocks off a 2 seed the UF is incremented by 13. If a 9 seed knocks off an 8 seed then the UF goes up by 1. If a 10 seed beats a 15 seed, there are no UF points since the higher seed was the winner.

BP (Bracket Points) is probably familiar to most sports fans. When scoring your bracket you get 1 point for a first round win, 2 points for the second round and then 4, 8, 16 and 32 for the following rounds. Basically, you fill out a bracket with the higher seeded team winning each game. If your bracket matches the reference bracket and they win, then you get points. For the Final Four, the points are given when a #1 seed wins.

Upset Factor, Most upsetting, Final 4, NCAA Basketball Tournament, Bracket pointsHere is what a perfect bracket would look like.

So, now for the big question after the 1st round: How upsetting is this tournament?

2022 ncaa tourney, basketball, stats, bp, ufThe UF for the first round was 48, which is just a little more than the average of 42 after the first round.

Upset Factor, Most upsetting, Final 4, NCAA Basketball Tournament, Bracket pointsThe most upsetting first round was in 2016 when there was a UF of 73.

2022 ncaa tourney, basketball, stats, bp, ufThe BP for the first round this year was one of the lowest. There has only been five years with less first round wins by the expected seed.

 

2022 ncaa tourney, basketball, stats, bp, ufAnother stat I keep track of is the number of double digit seeds that advance to each round. In the first round this year seven of the double digit seeds won. This is close to the top of the list with 2016 having ten double digit seeds advance to the second round. It is interesting that there are no double digit seeds that meet each other in the second round, so there may not be any in the Sweet 16.

It will be interesting to see how the rest of the tournament turns out. Will this remain near the bottom in BP?

The record is 2011 with a BP of only 57.

Yesterday was St. Peter’s day so most brackets got busted.

Many of my friends got their bracket busted with Iowa losing.

Did your bracket get busted?

Steven

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